Identifying trends in Terrorist Financing operations that target India

(Posted on behalf of Lakshmi Kumar) Proposed Project: Identifying trends in Terrorist Financing operations that target India

Background

In my work as a lawyer designing policy to combat money laundering and terrorist financing for the Indian government, there are certain trends in terms of the conduits of terrorist financing that are more visible depending on the region. Even though the funds received from drug trafficking and arms trading till date remain the most prevalent method to generate finances to fund terror operations. There exists the potential to identify practices that are representative and unique not only to the region, but also document the inflows of this category of money into a country and also whether there exist any regional trends in the financing of operations. In India and other countries in the sub- continent for example one visible trend has been the abuse of the NGO system to channel terror funds into the country. Similarly in Africa, the question of illegal gemstone trading, piracy and kidnapping are conduits employed more pre-dominantly that in other regions of the world. Analyzing such data could also clear up misconceptions about preferred conduits, thereby leading to the better utilization of personnel. A good example to this effect would be the spotlight that was shined on ‘’hawala” transactions post 9/11 as the ‘go to’ for terrorists to finance their operations. A couple of years down the road and many research papers later we now know that the sudden clamp down on these transactions and the many resources were put into oversight could have been better utilized identifying and understanding a greater variety of mechanism. Having stated all of this, my predominant hope would be that through analysis of the data one could establish trends that allow governments in the long run to fine tune and better target their regulatory and oversight mechanism.

Research Question Are there any identifiable trends for terrorist financing operations that affect India? Objectives 1. To identify countries/ regions where monetary inflows into India have been used/ attempted to be used to finance terror operations within the country 2. To identify trends in the preferred conduits for terrorist financing amongst these countries and also the preferred conduits for use within India 3. To identify regional patterns / connections for terrorist financing operations

Methodology Having previously conducted a survey and drafted a report on identifying money laundering trends in the securities markets in the Eurasian region for the Eurasina arm of the FATF (EAG), I am familiar with the sort of questionnaire that would need to be developed and also the kind of data that regulatory authorities in India have with them at present. An important pre-selection to conduct the appropriate analysis would be to not limit data to include only those financing operations that have resulted in actual terrorist attacks. This sort of restriction would prevent us from observing how successful oversight mechanisms have been in more established financial channels. At the same time there also has to be a data set indicating successful terrorist attacks and which conduit though which they occurred. Again, this help put down in very simple terms areas for improved regulation and oversight.

Limitations: Whilst, the first two objectives require data that can be collected from regulatory agencies in India itself, completing the analysis of the third objective might prove to be difficult unless countries or report from the FATF or regional arms of the FATF publish the necessary data in their own individual typology reports.

Attributes: The sort of data one would require in terms of attributes would be first a listing of all the various types of conduits that are employed for the financing of terrorism. These include piracy, trafficking, arms trading, nuclear proliferation, natural resource exploitation (oil and gemstones- can be treated as two separate categories), money routed through the formal banking sector that is not otherwise used in any other conduit, hawala transactions, charitable organizations and foundations etc. In India’s case automatically certain attributes will generate close to a zero result (natural resource exploitation, piracy, trafficking). The second set of attributes will be having data sets that grades the inflows of money from overseas into India in terms of these conduits (list of countries) and also the generation of these finances through these conduits within India. Finally a third column of data that identifies successful terror attacks and the conduit employed. It might be very hard to come across data that maps the conduit to an overseas region or to operations within India, hence, I don’t think it necessary to include that. With this data, we can examine the intersections between jurisdictions, frequency of inflow through a certain conduit, translation of finances into a terror operation.

Social network analysis of talent groups in one MNC

Chi GUO

(This is not for the 2^nd module of the course)

Background

For the purpose of maintaining competence in the future, world leading companies (most of them are multinational companies) invest in building talent pools. One of the talent building programs is called Leadership Development Program which is aimed to recruit talents from top business schools (Fletcher is on the list). This is a comprehensive talent developing program. Once the high potential people are recruited, they will have much better opportunities than normal staff inside the companies. In this program, they have holistic training programs, one-on-one mentors and high exposure to top management. The time periods of this program vary; generally speaking, it is from 18 months to 36 months. Companies build a community for these people, and hold events to encourage the knowledge sharing among these groups. Companies highly appreciate the network among these members, and want leverage advantages of the network the help these talented people have better working performance. However, things are not going as their expectation. The new hires stay very tight in this network, but as time pass by, their connections of this network become loose. Thus, I want to study how the networks decay year by year; what are the most effective activities to bring people together; whether the networks help them in terms of career development.  

Research Goals

1.       General network shapes

How the networks decay year by year? What factors impact on the decay? Could it be functions, regions?

2.       What kind of activity drives the success of social networks among them?

3.       Whether the networks help them in personal development? For new comers, do the networks help them quickly engage in the new working environment? For the same career interest groups, do the networks help them for the knowledge sharing?

4.       Identify the key individuals in the networks, such as isolators, bridge connectors etc. Also, understand what are the hidden reasons driving them become the roles in the networks.     

Research Methodology

It could be easier to conduct the research after being one member of this programJ. I am thinking to conduct the social network survey combined with post-survey interviews. Social network analysis can provide enough information to analysis the first two questions; post-survey interviews provide more information to answer question 3 and question 4.     

Ø  Survey questions:

Top three people contact in the network

Year to join the program

Current job function

Career interests

Region

Country

City

Gender

Interest in community activities

Social network importance to their job

……

Ø  Interview participants

New comers

Same career-interest group

Key individuals  

SNA Proposal: Youth Networks in Tehran, Iran

Proposal by: Mirza Ramic (will not be taking the second-half module, unfortunately)

Date: Oct. 24, 2013

Research Question:

Is social media helping shape networks among youth in Tehran, Iran that are based on shared interests derived from non-Iranian popular culture and entertainment preferences, at the potential expense of domestic political and civic engagement?

Background and Objective:

I have personally been in contact with numerous young people (ages ~18-30) from Tehran via social media, with whom I share similar music interests but who do not seem to be very politically active or at the very least politically vocal.  This could be either because A) they fear government officials might be monitoring their social media activities so they keep their political opinions offline, or B) they have focused their attention to non-Iranian popular culture and entertainment through social media, potentially at the expense of local political and civic engagement.  It seems plausible that the popular culture and entertainment value of social media could be strong enough that they are willing to accept point A, but then risk shifting further toward point B.  Of course, it could be the case that the majority of youth in Tehran was never very politically engaged to begin with, even before the dissemination of social media.  Still, the point here is to see whether the majority of youth that have formed networks around their interests derived from outward-looking social media use is disengaged from political and socioeconomic issues at home today, the implication being that they are now not only passive but also distracted.  (Alternatively, this could be a good thing a la 1970s English political punk music movement—if these non-political networks in Tehran were somehow eventually mobilized into political and social action—and for such a scenario this analysis could also be useful.)

For example, there is now a growing underground electronic music scene in Tehran and many young people are embracing Western electronic musicians, as well as beginning to create their own music in this genre. (For my own electronic music group, which now has nearly 10,000 “Likes” on Facebook, Tehran ranks as the second city in the world with most contributing “Likes” according to Facebook Page Insights.)  This engagement stemming from social media use= might then prevail over—or shift the focus away from—local political and civic engagement.  I would want to explore, if it was possible to conduct surveys on the ground in Tehran, how true this proposition might be and whether social networks among youth are being formed based on shared interests (such as music preferences, especially those derived from the West) rather than political and social domestic issues.

Hypothesis:

Youth in Tehran, Iran who use social media more frequently are less likely to engage in domestic political and civic issues as their focus shifts to exploring non-Iranian popular culture, entertainment, and media.  They form new social networks based on this shifting focus, and become less engaged in domestic political and civic issues since the basis of their networks is no longer centered around local and domestic matters.

Methodological Approach and Analysis:

Ideally, I would conduct a physical (offline) survey in Tehran, Iran (this, of course, is nearly impossible).  In this survey, in addition to the questions below, I would especially focus on finding out whether young adults who do not use social media frequently are connected according to more local issues and whether their political and civic engagement is higher.  However, I could start with an online survey of the individuals that have “Liked” my electronic music group’s Facebook page (241 individuals, presumably the majority of whom is under the age of 30).  I would analyze their network based on the following attribute information acquired from the survey:

1) Age

2) Occupational status (student, worker, unemployed, other)

3) Economic status

4) Hours per day spent on social media

5) Main purpose of using social media and hours spent on each category (I would include more details about each category):

-       Entertainment: domestic vs. foreign

-       Non-entertainment news and politics: domestic vs. foreign

-       Communication: personal, professional, community engagement; domestic vs. foreign

-       Other

6) Do you interact with your social media/online “friends” offline? If so: frequently, occasionally, rarely?

7) Hours per day spent on non-social media activities:

-       Studies/work

-       Offline entertainment

-       Offline hobbies

-       Offline communication: personal, professional, community engagement

8) Your top three interests/hobbies

9)  Some type of a question about political discourse, engagement, and activity, but not sure if this would be feasible, i.e., if answers would be accurate due to fears of government surveillance.  For example, I would want to ask: How many times per week do you engage in a dialogue about domestic political and socioeconomic issues?

 

(These questions would have to be carefully fleshed out to account for the sensitivity of conducting an online survey with Iranian nationals.)

With data collected if I was able to conduct an offline survey in Tehran, I would compare frequent social media users to others in their age category who are infrequent social media users, and see if the level of offline communication (and especially community engagement communication, which I would have to define more specifically) and political/socioeconomic engagement varies significantly across the two groups.  The idea would be to map out networks based on social media use, including: foreign vs. domestic social media use (i.e. using social media as a channel to access foreign vs. domestic information), frequent vs. non-frequent social media use, and entertainment vs. other (especially community engagement) social media use.  There are a lot of possible networks that could come out of this, but I would want to look at the network density and strength of ties for the “distracted” social media youth who are less politically engaged vs. the less “distracted” non-social media youth who are more politically vocal.  Then, I would also want to compare the former with the youth who are frequent social media users but are also more politically active.  Ultimately, this social network analysis would hopefully illustrate how young people in Tehran, Iran who use social media form networks, and whether ties based on the common interest of non-Iranian popular culture, entertainment, and media have a role to play in determining the level of domestic political and socioeconomic engagement as well as offline communication.

Potential Problems:

Well, getting to Tehran, Iran – but I might be able to pull that off…

Project Proposal: Do Media Organizations with Shared Political Bias Similarly Cover Breaking News?

Student Information:
Michael Mori (MALD 2015)

I will be joining Trevor and Gustavo for the project “Connections amongst current Fletcher cohort,” and so am posting this proposal as an up-for-grabs SNA project for other students joining the second module of the course.

Research Question

Do major media organizations that have the same political biases also similarly cover breaking news events? (Sub-question: do political biases in media organizations affect their breaking news coverage, and if so to what degree?

Hypothesis

Media bias is reflected in breaking news coverage, but the bias is not as pronounced as it is in conventional coverage because of the need to cover relevant national attention grabbing stories; therefore, while we will see a correlation between media bias and breaking news coverage, it will not be a strong correlation and it will vary from outlet to outlet, despite evidence of shared bias.

Background

Anyone who regularly gets their news from a wide variety of online sources will have noticed biases in news coverage. These biases commonly take the form of political angles on particular stories and are reflected in the prioritization of coverage on the front page of the outlet’s app or website. Other times media organizations simply do not cover stories at all. However, when news is “breaking,” meaning that it is a big story takes precedent over all other stories under coverage at the given moment, most will give some coverage to it. Here’s where it gets interesting.

Many media organizations issue breaking news through alerts on mobile applications, via emails to subscribers and of course on their websites. Each of these organizations keeps a close eye on the coverage of their competitors and is responsive to their coverage, especially breaking news stories. I have access to a dataset of all the breaking news email alerts sent out by 15 major media outlets over the past 14 months.

This dataset includes a timestamp for each breaking news email, a start and end time for each breaking news event, subject tags for each email, top tags over various periods of time, number of alerts per week per outlet, number of breaking news events per week, and number of emails sent by each outlet on the each story as it evolved over time.

This data can be used along with information from numerous studies that have already been done on media bias to get a better idea of whether media organizations with similar biases have similar coverage of breaking news through email alerts.

Methodology

This project has four major steps of analysis. The first is to identify and select the best most recent study on the bias of each of the major media organizations for which I have data, and then to add this attribute to the data mix.

Once this has been accomplished, you should look through the breaking news events for the 14 months and categorize them in terms of bias; either as pro-liberal, pro-conservative or neutral (neither helpful nor harmful to either political group). Next, individually look at each media outlet and analyze whether its coverage of breaking news events reflects its alleged bias, and if so to what degree.

The fourth and most interesting step is to look at the organizations and see how they are connected to one another by media bias -- meaning whether or not they share the same bias -- and then look to see if and how their breaking news coverage overlaps. To do this, you will analyze the data to examine if media organizations with shared bias covered (or did not cover) the same breaking news events. Be sure to look into the extent of their coverage as the story progressed over time. Another point of inquiry would be into the use of tags. News sources that have a lot of tags in common and have a high overlap in coverage may be similar. The question is whether or not that similarity is reflected there alleged bias.

Potential Limitations

Social network analysis alone cannot fully explain why  a media outlet chooses to issue (or omit) a breaking news alert via email. Indeed one major news outlet, Yahoo, issues on average less than one breaking news email per week. This research will be able to shed light on whether or not media organizations with the same alleged bias cover breaking news in a similar way that reflects that bias.

Proposed SNA: The Social Networks of Volunteer Community Organizations in Disaster Response

Student not taking 2^nd module this Fall.

Overview

In February 2011 the city of Christchurch, New Zealand was devastated by an earthquake of unprecedented force which triggered widespread destruction and caused the deaths of 189 individuals. The regular Police, Fire, Ambulance, Civil Defense, and Health Services, though initially overwhelmed, began operating as expected. However, these civil services were also joined by community organizations whose efforts were focused on non-critical community support. The largest of these groups was a collective of approximately 10,000 local university students (nicknamed the ‘Student Army’) whose members organized response activities largely through Facebook. Non-critical response activities included clearing ‘liquefaction’ sand/gravel debris from roads and residential properties, transportation of supermarket and pharmacy goods to the elderly and other individuals needing assistance, and general clean-up/restorative work. Initially, interaction between the Student Army with civil services was haphazard and disorganized, though efficient dispatch began to occur once civil services were able to station members at the makeshift Student Army headquarters at the city’s main university. Another group comprised of approximately two dozen local farmers from the Federated Farmers union (or, the ‘Farmy Army’ as the group became known) also began offering resources and assistance and often worked together in non-critical clean-up crisis response activities with groups of students collaborating with a farmer/tractor. It was noted by Civil Defense Emergency Management Response Review members that community groups played a major part in the Response. However, two way flows of information, and tasking and provision of resources needed to be improved in the event of future emergencies. Additionally, the Review recommended that templates for coordination with community groups be designed for disaster response planning. This series of events provides an interesting opportunity for social network analysis and the potential implementation of disaster relief planning relating to volunteer effort coordination.

The Study

The social network analysis would focus solely on the Student Army, its composition and how members were connected to other individuals and organizations in the crisis response field. Attributes and connections would be surveyed relating to volunteer activities undertaken, as well as locations served. As mentioned before, the student volunteer group’s response to community needs was initially disorganized and thus inefficient, but gradually improved once civil services were able to engage with leaders to coordinate dispatch of their activities. This study would aim to provide a clearer picture of how information flowed within the Student Army as well as between the group and other civil and volunteer response organizations over time so as to help plan improvement of future response activities.

Methodology

As the Student Army coordinated activities and events mostly via social media, studies of the Facebook group itself would be greatly beneficial in assessing and analyzing how members communicated and organized to undertake these events. Also, New Zealand it seems has only two degrees of separation between residents, and personally, it turns out that one of the two main Student Army coordinators is a friend’s brother. Thus, gaining access to a database of individuals from which a survey could be developed would be a relatively straight-forward process, as would the implementation of the survey via students’ email addresses.
Given that Christchurch is barely starting to rebuild and the events of February 2011 are still very fresh in residents’ memories, and the fact that another swarm of earthquakes occurred recently only a few hundred kilometres away, there will likely be a high level of participation should a survey be conducted and results of the analysis would be highly sought after.
A potential limitation in collecting data for analysis would be that the student population changes frequently, and therefore the survey response collection might be hindered due to previous members not having active student email address accounts. This could be mitigated by coordinating with the Registrar to gain forwarding contact information.
Analyzing the connections and interactions within the Student Army together with the organization’s links with other crisis response (civil service or volunteer) networks will help to identify the key nodes/actors within the Student Army. This in turn will assist in coordination of volunteers and help to optimize use of resources and promote efficiency in future. Key actors identified would potentially serve two functions: to be points of contact to coordinate activities within their neighborhoods, and to be ‘brokers’ for other crisis response groups. This would include conveyance of 1) activity information and potential collaboration, and 2) provision of resources (such as equipment via the Farmy Army). Thus, efficiency would increase with respect to mobilizing and responding to community needs across the city.

Required Data – Potential Survey Questions

Part I - Attributes

Gender

Age

Resources used: (Vehicle and/or physical labor)

Location of Residence: (Neighborhood)

Locations assisted post February 2011 earthquake: (Neighborhood(s))

Part II - Networks

Names of individuals in Student Army with whom you volunteered

Names of individuals in Farmy Army with whom you volunteered

Names of branch(es) of civil service operations you personally interacted/coordinated with in the field

Analysis and Potential Uses

Templates for organization of volunteer response networks could be produced based on information provided in the survey. Disaster relief measures could be determined ahead of time, should there be similar emergencies within cities with potentially large volunteer populations (for example, the other five major centers where a public university is located). The survey could easily be modified for any volunteer group or organization and developed and maintained so that current information can be accessed regarding utilizing the network should a need arise in future. Other potential uses could be in accounting for missing people in crisis scenarios, as well as connecting communities to ‘intangible’ relief efforts such as mental health/counseling/debrief services post-crisis.  

Sources

McLean, Ian, et al: “Review of the Civil Defence Emergency Management Response to the 22 February Christchurch Earthquake”, 29 June 2012. Available at http://www.civildefence.govt.nz/memwebsite.nsf/wpg_URL/For-the-CDEM-Sector-Publications-Review-of-the-Civil-Defence-Emergency-Management-Response-to-the-22-February-Christchurch-Earthquake (10/23/13)

The Effects of Ex-slave Repatriation on Indigenous and Immigrant Networks in Liberia

 

Research Question

How did the early social networks amongst early Liberian settlers affect long-term development outcomes?

 

Background

After slave trade was abolished in the early 1800s, many slaves brought to the United States from the colonies were repatriated in West Africa. Over a period of 50 years, Liberia transformed from a slave colony, used primarily to export slaves to the new world, into an ex-slave colony. The initial settlers were mostly freed slaves who assumed important roles as emissaries from the US, commissioned by the American Colonization Society. Americo-Liberians, as they came to be known, distinguished themselves from the indigenous populations by creating institutions modeled on those they had become accustomed to in the US. Soon after the declaration of independence in 1847, the Republic of Liberia became the first independent African state with a new “elite” or “ruling” class of individuals that divided the society into various factions. Identity became a focal issue in the division of power between different factions: Americo-Liberians, though few in number, came to dominate politically and financially. These divisions in society are often cited as the main reason for Liberia’s two civil wars.

Objective

Using social network analysis of census data collected prior to Liberia’s independence, I hope to achieve three things:

a)      Examine how the network evolved over time as new settlers were repatriated into the colony from the US;

b)      Analyze the determinants underlying the determinants of factions over time and some of the basic elements that distinguished these factions;

c)      Hypothesize and test whether there are any links to the dynamics of the social networks and the long-term development outcomes of different areas in Liberia.

 

Methodology

The 1843 census of Liberia has basic socio-demographic data along with a module that records whom each person in the census knew. I intend to create two separate datasets: a one-node matrix with (directional) relationships between the full sample of individuals in the census and an attributes file with individual node characteristics. I will then examine the natural sub-groups (factions) that form and generate group level measures on centrality and closeness.

 

Hypothesis

Long-run outcomes are poorer in places where there are factions forming in the social network.

 

Potential limitations

The endogeneity of the social network makes it an empirical challenge to identify the causal impacts of factions on long-term development. Nevertheless, an analysis of the evolution of the network over time and (potentially across space) may make provide useful insight into the complex hierarchies that have formed within networks and between groups.

SNA Proposal: Private vs. Public assistance. Is there room for partnership to benefit the artisans of Otovalo?

I will not be taking the second module of this course this semester but plan on enrolling next Fall.

 

Key Question

Do the artisans of Otavalo receive government subsidies in addition to the assistance provided by Faire Collection? If so, what kind of assistance?

 

Background

The presence of the Kichwa Indians in Otavalo, Ecuador has had a profound cultural, anthropologic, and economic impact in the development and progress of this city over time. The diversity of their traditions and cultural expressions has always been appreciated by locals and visitors alike. The production and commercialization of their manual crafts are central to the diversification and dynamism of the region’s economy.

It was these types of characteristics that attracted Fletcher graduate, Amanda Judge, to invest in Ecuador by providing fair employment for artisans of this country through Faire Collection (FC), a social enterprise she created to promote positive change in impoverished communities. FC has established partnerships with 65 different artisans throughout eight fair trade workshops in Ecuador, including some in the city of Manabí as well.

Faire Collection’s approach to reduce poverty goes beyond simply providing employment to the artisans of Ecuador. They believe that a holistic approach must be implemented to be able to really reap the benefits of sustainable social impact. Ms. Judge’s company provides training programs on topics like financial management, health and nutrition, conflict resolution, and recycling & energy efficiency among others. Additionally, FC also provides academic scholarships for the artisans and their families, no-interest loans, disaster assistance and mentorship.

FC has carried out annual artisan well-being surveys to assess their social impact in the communities in which it works. Data obtained from these surveys will serve as a starting point to fulfill the objective of this analysis.

Objective

The objective of this analysis is to assist FC in figuring out whether they should pursue a partnership with Ecuadorian government. The government also has similar types of assistance programs, in the form of subsidies for its citizens, like the ones offered by FC. To assess whether a public-private partnership would be a good idea, FC needs to find out if their artisans are receiving government subsidies in addition or separately from the assistance they already provide. Through this analysis FC will be able to find out how they could harness the assistance provided by the government to make a more significant social impact in the community of artisans they work with, and therefore, develop a proposal for a public-private partnership to approach the government with.   
 

SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS

Key Questions

The analysis would require the following key questions:

·         Do you receive government subsidies?

·         Do you or someone from your family ever receive an academic scholarship from FC?

·         Do you or have you received a no-interest loan from FC?

·         Do you or have you received disaster assistance from FC?

·         Do you or have you received mentorship from FC?

·         Do you or someone from your family ever receive an academic scholarship from the government?

·         Do you or have you received a no-interest loan from the government

·         Do you or have you received disaster assistance from the government?

·         Do you or have you received mentorship from the government?

As previously stated, the information collected by FC will serve as a starting point for this project.  Since the company already surveys their artisans every year, these additional questions would be simply added to the survey to address the objective of this analysis. The survey already collects attribute data that can then be analyzed to pinpoint which of the artisans in the FC network is yielding the most benefit by taking advantage of both the assistance provided by FC and the subsidies offered by the government.

If cliques are discovered among those who receive only FC assistance, only government assistance, or both types of assistance in one particular area (i.e. no-interest loans), analysis of particular attributes within each clique could prove useful in figuring out what led to the creation of each particular grouping.  Furthermore, centrality measures could help pinpoint which individuals are receiving the most benefits and therefore, are the most informed of the assistance offered by both FC and the government. Relevant connections among the network would also prove useful in assessing whether the government needs to improve their methods of communication to a particular demographic in the group (i.e. are more women vs. men receiving more subsidies? single vs. married?).

Two-mode networks could be developed to see if there is a correlation among the strength of ties between individual attributes in the network and ties of those artisans with access to government subsidies.

 

If a large amount of the artisans are not receiving government subsidies, FC could make a case that partnering with them would give the government access to a network of artisans that are not being fully serviced by their offerings of subsidies. Knowing what kind of subsidies the artisans are receiving from the government will allow FC to narrow down the scope of the partnership they could potential pursue with the public sector and consequently achieve their ultimate goal of promoting positive change in impoverished communities 

Assumptions/Limitations:

·        Since I do not currently have access to the data set collected by FC, I assume that basic demographic information (geographical location of the artisan, gender, marital status, age, etc.) is collected every year.

·       Due to time limitations on obtaining more in-depth information on the subsidy programs offered by the government, I assumed that the government currently offers comparable programs to FC’s. Further research on this would allow for the analysis to be more accurate.