Cooperative and Competitive Behavior Among Militant Groups in Pakistan

Introduction/Background:

The history of terrorism in Pakistan began with the Soviet War in Afghanistan. Although initially focused on the Afghan liberation movement, the nature of non-state armed groups in Pakistan has evolved into an ever shifting series of clans, terrorist groups, and militias. The myriad of militants is characterized by both cooperation and infighting, making the conflict even more unstable and difficult to predict.

Primary Question:

What characteristics of Pakistani militant groups make them more likely to cooperate or compete with other groups?

Hypothesis:

I hypothesize that groups are more likely to compete or cooperate based on the affiliates or rivals of that group. For example, the likelihood of Group A cooperating with Group B depends on with which groups Group B cooperates or competes.

Data:

I will conduct a review of literature and news sources to gather attribute data on each of the militant groups considered active in Pakistan, as well as incidents of violence in which they have been implicated, from the outbreak of the Soviet War in Afghanistan in December 1979 to the present day. Once I have identified the incidents, I will determine which, if any, other groups were either involved in the events or injured by them.

Methodology/Important Network Measures:

I will have two valued single-mode datasets – one to track the instances of cooperation between militant groups and one to track instances of competition. In addition, I will generate an attribute file, which will include demographic and qualitative information about each group, such as size, primary area of activity, parent organization, and religious or political affiliations in an attempt to discern patterns in which types of groups work with or against each other.

I will begin by looking for patterns in organizations that cooperate or compete using the overall datasets based on the attribute data. Then, I will look for any shifts in the behavior over time by analyzing at the data in five-year intervals.

Conclusions:

This project will take an in-depth look at the network of militant groups that are active in Pakistan and attempt to determine patterns of cooperation or competition among them.

I will be taking the second module