Tracing origins of Islamic extremist networks

(not taking the second module)

Background

In October 2014, leading members of the Pakistani Taliban swore loyalty to ISIS, a off-shoot of Al-Qaeda operating across Iraq and Syria. ISIS has proven a challenge to American influence in the region and so far has been able to effectively erase much of the border between Syria and Iraq as it declares itself the true Islamic caliphate. As other Islamic extremist groups decide whether to ally themselves with ISIS or to stand in contrast to ISIS, the United States and its allies face an ever-evolving network.

Connections between and within Islamic extremist groups has allowed for the proliferation of extremist ideology; shared methods and tools for recruiting and training members; and a transfer of skills and knowledge of planning and implementing violent attacks on civilians and governments across the world. Across time and territory, networks of Islamic extremist groups have challenged the stability of states and the safety of citizens.

Many individuals and institutes such as Stanford University's Mapping Militants, and David McCandless have explored and visualized the relationships between extremist groups and even between members of extremist groups to illustrate how violent Islamic extremism has become almost a movement as groups coordinate, cooperate, and learn from each other. What these efforts miss, however, is how and where the connections between these groups and individuals are formed. In the United States and its allies continues to develop counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategies to fight ISIS and its network, the source of the connections is key in weakening the web.

Social networks question

What are the primary origins of connections between Islamic extremist groups and their members? That is, are leaders connected to leaders, rank and file connected to rank and file, or are leaders connected to rank and file members, and where are those connections formed?

Hypothesis

Detention centers, training facilities, educational backgrounds provide the most important networking venues, and connections are initially formed between rank and file members who might move into leadership positions.

Necessary data

I will need membership data of the networked Islamic extremist groups - Al-Qaeda, TTP, ISIS, etc., as well as biographical information on these members in order to know who makes up the networks and the exact nature of their relationships. This data is extremely difficult to access as members are often impossible to identify and there fore the data does not exist, or, when the data does exist, it is not publically accessible for a project such as this one. Biographical information is often only available for leadership or high-profile members of groups, such as Osama Bin Laden or Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.

What will be the most important network measures?

Cliques and subgroups within membership within and across extremist groups will show who is most connected and, with attribute data, how exactly they are connected (classmates, cellmates, etc)

Betweenness measures and other centrality measures of individuals across the network will help to identify what level (leadership, rank and file, new members) of membership serves as strong connections between extremist groups.

What will the SNA help you do (e.g. refocus or narrow field of research, identify interviewees,  lead to organizational change?)

The SNA will help militaries, governments, and policy makers identify the sources of connections between threatening Islamic extremist groups in order to best target networking venues (schools, prisons, etc) for counter-strategies and in order to best focus intelligence and operations efforts against the appropriate level of membership.