SNA Project Proposal - Brittany Parker

War Room Politics: A Social Network Analysis of the Iran Deal Media Battle

*I will be taking the second module of this course

Background

On July 14, 2015, the United States and Iran announced the landmark Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program. Reaching the accord, while historic, was only part of the battle: the administration still had to sell the deal to Congress and the American people. Six days later the White House set up a “war room” in the basement of the West Wing to respond to the barrage of criticism from the deal’s detractors and to push the administration’s narrative forward. Over the course of the next three months, opponents and supporters alike took to the nation’s newspapers and airwaves in droves, hoping to swing public opinion before the JCPOA’s review deadline on September 14, 2015.

War room communication tactics and strategies are not new. Ever since Bill Clinton’s team drove the concept to the White House, similar campaign-style messaging has become increasingly prevalent in the court of public opinion. What is novel, however, is their use from inside of the executive branch, particularly on an issue as dense and complex as the JCPOA. Using a similar methodology to Alex Taylor’s 2013 project on reporter-source networks in coverage of Hezbollah’s role in Syria, I plan to examine to what extent the White House was successful in driving the narrative in mainstream English-language media coverage of the Iran Deal from July 14-September 14, 2015 (the time from when the JCPOA was signed to the deadline for feedback from Congress). In the interest of realistic project scope, I will compare beginning, middle, and end week-long snapshots of this process: July 13-19 (most interested parties have not declared a position); August 1-August 7 (the week before Congress’ annual recess), August 29-September 4 (on September 2 the White House won enough support in Congress for the deal to proceed)

Research Question(s)

• Did news sources covering the JCPOA utilize a variety of “expert” sources or are certain sides or actors dominating the coverage? 
• Which voices dominated the English-language mainstream media coverage of the JCPOA across news outlets?

Hypothesis

Given the White House’s strategic messaging foresight and ability to line up high-level supporters early on in the review process, a social network analysis will show:

• Outside experts and elected officials NOT White House spokespersons constitute the majority of voices in media coverage; and 
• A “trickle-down” effect to the broader policy community, where support from think-tankers, academics, and other experts builds over time. 

Data

To evaluate the visibility of White House surrogates as well as map out the other key voices throughout this process, I plan to develop a two-mode data set showing ties between outlets and sources. The majority of data I need for this investigation is available on the internet or through Tuft’s library database systems which allow newspaper searches of defined source material and key terms. And while most of my proposed radio and television sources release transcripts of their shows, those that do not I can access through TVEyes – a service which allows you to search and save clips of television and radio broadcasts. To build the dataset, I will rely on my professional knowledge of the key players in this debate as well as interviews with colleagues involved with the administration’s efforts and the various anti-deal campaigns.

I will focus on three main categories of media to derive data for my three proposed snapshots:

• Print sources: The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Politico, Associated Press, McClatchy Services 
• Radio: NPR (Morning Edition, Weekend Edition); The Takeaway; John Batchelor Show 
• Television: Sunday Morning Shows (ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox), PBS Newshour 

(NOTE: The decision to limit the sample to “top tier”, non-digital publications is due to both capacity and the weight given to flagship publications and shows when rolling out messaging.)

Additionally, White House search terms are broadly defined as administration officials and supporting staff who were highly visible throughout this process. 

Key figures:

• President Barack Obama
• Vice President Joseph Biden
• Secretary of State John Kerry 
• Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz 
• White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest
• National Security Council spokesperson Ned Price 
• State Department Spokesperson John Kirby

Conclusion

Applying the network analysis model to this case can highlight the individuals in both camps who were most prominent in the mainstream media’s coverage of the review process, allowing us to draw conclusions about the tactics and success of the administration’s effort. However, this project is intended to play a complimentary role in a broader capstone investigation of the White House’s campaign in an attempt to understand the evolving role strategic communications plays in policy planning at the highest level.