The Path to More Resistance: restructuring the Civil Movement in Lebanon using a community based approach to power redistribution and Social Network Analysis
“The real puzzle is why the larger groups of
people don't rebel against the smaller groups of people more often. Perhaps the
most important question is not why men rebel, but how they rebel.” Roger
Petersen
SUMMARY
In the summer of 2015,
waste piled up in the streets of Beirut and Mount Lebanon, triggering a garbage
crisis. Mass protests followed. A loose coalition of actors (what was to become known as the “Al Hirak Al Madani”, or the Civil Movement)- managed to mobilize thousands of citizens, and to mount a pressure campaign that lasted several months against the government. Initially, the demonstrations focused on the
garbage issue. But with additional groups with divergent backgrounds joining, the protests became more
political in nature. This resulted in the movement splitting into many smaller groups. Soon after the momentum
faded and the movement disintegrated.
The aim of this of
paper is to apply Social Network Analysis to the Civil Movement phenomena in
Lebanon in order to Draw insight into:
- what issue areas
brought the various groups together
- what issue areas
brought the various groups apart
- how the network can be strengthened
The movement will be analyzed against the
theoretical framework developed by Roger Peterson’s “Community Based Theory of
Rebellion”, where groups forming the wider Civil Movement Umbrella will each be treated as "strong community", and where the overall Umbrella of groups conceptualized as a "weak community".
Applying the concept of "thresholds" from a social networks analysis perspective will be reflected by defining Thresholds as the minimum required number of connections above which an individual or groups of connected individuals become willing to mobilize.
THEORETICAL HYPOTHESIS
Applying the concept of "thresholds" from a social networks analysis perspective will be reflected by defining Thresholds as the minimum required number of connections above which an individual or groups of connected individuals become willing to mobilize.
THEORETICAL HYPOTHESIS
- Community
heterogeneity may be more effective than homogeneity in helping to produce
rebellion
- Size of groups not
as important as their positions in the overall community structure
- Most individuals
think along the lines of conditional rebellion: 'I will rebel if x per
cent rebel'.
- Thus, individuals
have a threshold for participation.
- The relationship
of social groups to the overall community structure is the single most
important factor in rebellion
- Nationalistic
political parties may not be that important in producing rebellion, they
may be counterproductive- during rebellion politics is continued by other
mean
- Centralization
effects matter. Some players may not have the lowest
thresholds, but once they join the movement their membership can
have catalytic effect
- Individuals will be more likely to join an action if they perceive their individual contributions as meaningful
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
(1) How could the
Civil Society Movement maintain pressure and itself against the powers of the
established regime in Lebanon? Or, looking at this from the power holders’
perspective: how would the regime manage the rise of such movement?
(2) Who are the first
actors? And what segments of the population form their support
basis? How are these first actors connected?
(3) Who are the
Intermediary groups?
(4) Did the Civil Movement
manage to create the required connections to mobilize the general population?
(or why did the movement fail to attract the critical mass needed for people to
cross the threshold of rebellion) What can be done to increase the interlinkage
between these two groups?
(5) How did these groups
communicate?
(6) How can the
communication flow within this heterogeneous group be increased?
(7) What groups were
positioned to lead? What organizations were most influential in mobilizing
people?
(8) Who are potential
individual leaders?
(9) How is the “community”
distributed (social, political, economic-social)
(10) What
are the threshold levels of the various groups and of the general
population?
(11) What
organizations have low thresholds? and which ones have high thresholds?
(12) What
tools and tactics did the various groups use to mobilize the general
population? What is the role of social media?
(13) Who are the players, groups, that if they join would have a positive catalytic effect on the movement?
(13) Who are the players, groups, that if they join would have a positive catalytic effect on the movement?
CONTEXTUAL HYPOTHESIS
1. Initially
first actors were young civil society and political activists
2. The
leaderships of the various groups had experience from previous movements
3. Most
people who mobilized come from urban settings
4. Most
people who mobilized come from diverse backgrounds (economic, religious)
5. Social
Media played a crucial role in mobilizing the masses
6. Radical
groups contributed to the alienation of many and contributed to the dissolution
of the movement
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
AND DEFINITIONS:
[1] Michael Taylor
Community, Anarchy, and Liberty, (1982).
Taylor enumerates five
essentials of 'community': A. direct relations between members (this implies
relatively small numbers) ; B. many-sided relations (social and cultural, as
well as economic) ; C. reciprocity ; D. rough equality of material conditions ;
E. a common set of beliefs and values. The strength or weakness of a community
depends upon the presence and depth of these five characteristics.
[2] Roger Petersen, A
community-based theory of rebellion, 1993.
Petersen states that:
to belong to a community means that one is connected to other individuals
through a set of common and cooperative activities. However, not all
individuals are part of the same activities: there are sub-groups within any
community. These sub-groups may be based upon friendship ties or direct family
relations, or they may be based upon formal and informal economic, social and
political organizations. While all members of a community may have direct
contact with one another and share common beliefs, it is actually this
conglomeration of sub-groups which can be used to differentiate community
This hypothetical
community consists of three membership groups—political, economic and social.
Notice that some members of the community belong to two, or even all three of
the groups.
[4] A community structure
is defined by three factors:
1-Kind of group
2-Size of group
3-Nature of overlapping
memberships
[5] Peterson “the
most commonly found rebellion capable community structures possess three interrelated
subsets: an unconstrained or highly dense cluster of 'first actors' linked to
the general population through their connections to an intermediary group.”
[6] Each individual's threshold is a combination of not only preferences and constraints but also a 'safety in numbers' factor, closely linked to the total percentage of rebels in the community and a 'social pressure' factor related to the norms of the group. An individual has a sense of how he or she should respond, a of duties and obligations. This factor is loosely related to percentage participation within the respective groups to which one belongs
[6] Each individual's threshold is a combination of not only preferences and constraints but also a 'safety in numbers' factor, closely linked to the total percentage of rebels in the community and a 'social pressure' factor related to the norms of the group. An individual has a sense of how he or she should respond, a of duties and obligations. This factor is loosely related to percentage participation within the respective groups to which one belongs
SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS
METHEDOLOGY
The exercise will
require the analysis of both one mode network and two mode network of the
various actors that formed the Civil Movement Umbrella and the issue areas that
connected them.
Surveys for Individuals
in the various groups, as well as separate surveys for groups will be required.
A survey to the general population would as well be great to have.
The one mode network
will be particularly useful to establish intercommunication patterns,
leaderships, mobilizers. After identifying the top groups, we will look at the
ego network of this group. Centrality measures will be run to identify leadership, connectors, behind the scene players, both at the individuals level within each groups, and at the group level between the various groups forming the Civil Movement umbrella. Subgroups analysis will be used to dissect through the overall network structure and identify factions, cliques, etc. A two-mode network will help us understand how the
various groups are related to issue areas.
A possible way of measuring the internal mobilization capacity of each of the group (i.e percentage of followers mobilized) could be done by comparing the actual number of people who participated in the demonstration as a percentage of those people subscribed to their FB page or twitter account. Overlapping users that are subscribed to more than one group could be accounted for by asking a question in the survey: how many civil movement groups do you follow on social media? please list them.
A possible way of measuring the internal mobilization capacity of each of the group (i.e percentage of followers mobilized) could be done by comparing the actual number of people who participated in the demonstration as a percentage of those people subscribed to their FB page or twitter account. Overlapping users that are subscribed to more than one group could be accounted for by asking a question in the survey: how many civil movement groups do you follow on social media? please list them.
A sample Individual
(people working directly with any of the groups) survey could be:
· Before the mass
protest, how often did you communicate with other individuals from other groups?
· During the mass
protest? how often did you communicate with other individuals from other groups?
· After the mass protest?
how often did you communicate with other individuals from other groups?
· During the protest, who
would you qualify as leaders in the Movement? List three names
· Post protest, who would
you qualify as leaders in the Movement? List three names
· What are the necessary
qualities for a leader to have? Please choose among the following list:
(1-Charisma, Oratory Skills, Organizational Skills, Determination, Empathy,
Perspective/Vision, Other: please list)
· Which groups you deem
most effective? List up to three
· Post protest, which
groups you deem as having a negative contribution? List up to three
A sample group (the
various organizations that formed the movement) survey could be:
· What are your group’s
main goals?
· What objectives did
your organizations have during the protest?
· What are your current
objectives?
· What tactics did your
organization apply during the protest?
· Who forms your
base of support? Pre, during, and post protest? How would you qualify your base
(urban/rural communities, underprivileged /middle/affluent, age range, etc)
Did you feel that your individual contribution to the protest is meaningful?
During the protest, who would you qualify as leaders in the Movement? List three names
Post protest, who would you qualify as leaders in the Movement? List three names
What are the necessary qualities for a leader to have? Please choose among the following list:(1-Charisma, Oratory Skills, Organizational Skills, Determination, Empathy, Perspective/Vision, Other: please list
Which groups you deem most effective? List up to three
Post protest, which groups you deem as having a negative contribution? List up to three
· What
issue areas you had in common with other groups during the protest? Post
protest? (discourses on environment, waste separation, political
corruption, national honor, demands for the resignations of cabinet, etc)
· Where
did you diverge pre-protest? Post protest?
· Did
you use social media to mobilize people? If yes Which outlets at to what degree
(frequently i.e on a daily basis, occasionally i.e every 2-3 days, or rarely
once a week)?
Sample survey for the
citizens i.e population who are not officially part of any organization or
group
Did you feel that your individual contribution to the protest is meaningful?
During the protest, who would you qualify as leaders in the Movement? List three names
Post protest, who would you qualify as leaders in the Movement? List three names
What are the necessary qualities for a leader to have? Please choose among the following list:(1-Charisma, Oratory Skills, Organizational Skills, Determination, Empathy, Perspective/Vision, Other: please list
Which groups you deem most effective? List up to three
Post protest, which groups you deem as having a negative contribution? List up to three
DATA COLLECTION
ACTORS I (Large groups)
1. You Stink (tul‘it
rihetkun):
The “You Stink” group
was the fulcrum of the protests against the garbage crisis. The movement
consisted mainly of young activists with experience in political mobilization
and social movements from earlier campaigns. The group also contained members
of civil society organizations and environmental and human rights groups. The
group’s leadership consisted mainly of educated, young people who came from an
urbanized Beirut-background. The group’s main goal was to push for an end to
the ongoing garbage crisis. The group sees itself as a catalyst for change,
raising awareness about corruption and unconstitutional events and mobilizing
people to stand up for their rights. You Stink had four major demands: 1) an
end to the garbage crisis; 2) the resignation of the Minister of Environment
Mohamad Machnouk; 3) accountability of the people responsible for the violent
responses to the peaceful protests and 4) revitalization of the institutions
through a new law. Initially, “You Stink” was a small movement that started to
mobilize mainly on social media, where it circulated the hashtag
“#tol3etre7etkom” (“you stink”). With this slogan, the group addressed the
political elite and their seeming inability and/or refusal to solve the garbage
crisis. The movement had launched its Facebook page on July 25th more or
less simultaneously with other sites and small scale movements, as well as
declarations pillorying the aggravated garbage crisis, on the one hand, and the
political irresponsibility in dealing with it on the other hand. “You Stink”
expressed grievances which a large part of the population could identify with,
as the crisis and the growing garbage piles were affecting everyone’s daily
life. Thus, the movement gained a lot of sympathy among the population, which
in this early phase was expressed mainly on social media in Lebanon. As of July
2016, “You Stink” still had 206,389 likes on Facebook.
2. We Want
Accountability:
(badna nhasib): This
group is a left-leaning collective close to the following political parties: The
Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party, the Socialist Arab Lebanon Vanguard Party
(Hizb al Taliyeh Lubnan Al-‘Arabi Al-Ishtiraki), the People’s Movement (Harakat
Al-Sha’ab), and The Democratic Youth Union (Ittihad ash-shahab al-dimuqrati),
which is the youth organization of the Lebanese Communist Party. The group
connected the garbage crisis to the corrupt political elite and was pushing for
a change of the political system. The group emerged after the protests of the
22nd of August and demanded firstly that the persons responsible for the
violence against the protesters should be held accountable. Other demands posed
by this group were: the return of the responsibilities for waste disposal to
the municipalities; the settlement/reconciliation/dropping of the charges
against arrested protesters; the right to protest and freedom of speech; a new
secular electoral law; and the resignation of the Lebanese cabinet. While the
movement was less popular and active on social media than “You Stink”, it
relied on “established” forms of mobilization among its existing network. With
this, it was able to emerge as an active part of the movement on the street and
had its own slogans, songs and demands. Although clearly differing from “You
Stink” by its more radical confrontation with the political system, the
movement refrained from clear ideological leftist slogans but rather drew on
general grievances and long term, grand scheme demands in its communication.
3. The People Want:
“The People Want”
(ash-sha‘ab yurid) is a left leaning group that incorporates grassroots
movements and small political parties, such as the Socialist Forum. The group
demanded the release of the arrested protesters, accountability of security
forces for the violence exercised against protesters, the resignation of Nohad
Machnouk (Minister of Interior) and Mohammad Machnouk (Minister of
Environment), handing waste management to municipalities, the prosecution of
corruption and new parliamentary elections. The group has been less effective
in mobilizing people than the groups mentioned above, but has been active on
the ground handing out leaflets and holding public debates.
4. To the Streets:
“To the streets”
(‘ash-shara‘a) is a smaller group, which gathered activists from the Democratic
Left Movement. Similar demands as the ones introduced above namely the
resignation of M. Machnouk and N. Machnouk, a solution to the garbage crisis,
accountability for the violence against protesters as well as holding the
Ministry of Energy accountable for corruption. The group “To the Streets”
became famous for holding a banner with photos of political figures, which they
accused of being corrupt. The banner included Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of
Hezbollah, which led to controversial reactions.
5. Ecomovement:
The Ecomovement
includes around 60 environmental NGOs across the country and represents the
main activists advocating environmental issues. The main goal of the
Ecomovement in the context of the garbage crisis is an environmentally sound
disposal of waste, including reducing, reusing, recycling and composting of the
waste. Many of the NGOs part of this group offer recycling services to
citizens. The demands for these services increased highly with the outbreak of
the crisis and most of these NGOs reached their maximum capacity. The
environmentalist group gathered on March 5, 2016 with experts (industrialists,
professors, lawyers, syndicates, independent experts) to elaborate a roadmap
for an environmentally sound solution to the garbage crisis, which was signed
by 220 NGOs. However, this roadmap has received little attention by the media
and by officials.
6. Legal Agenda:
The Legal Agenda is a
Beirut-based NGO that addresses issues of legal activism in the Arab world and
aims to turn legal activism into an emancipatory tool for disadvantaged groups.
They mainly seek to give legal advice for activists. The Legal Agenda advocates
the abidance by laws and regulations effective in Lebanon, which have been
severely violated by the political elite in the waste sector in the past years.
The aim of this NGO was to provide legal consultation for activists and the
different groups involved. Lawyers and employees of the NGO Legal Agenda,
provided consultation to the groups on the ground regarding legal issues. The
NGO created and coordinated a committee of volunteer lawyers who coordinated
the defense of the protestors. In addition, the NGO dedicated its monthly issue
to the movement as well as its research on the roots of the crisis and possible
solutions. Finally, the NGO coordinated a meeting between the different
factions of the movement.
7. the thawrat 22 ab
(Revolution of August 22): consisting of independent leftist activists
and well-known Journalists
8. the Feminist Bloc:
notably the feminist movement sawt an-niswa, “The Voice of the Women”,
9. tol’it rihetkun, al
harakat al tas’hihiyat (You Stink, Corrective Movement).
ACTORS IN OTHER REGIONS
THAN BEIRUT
While the major driving
force came from the activists of Beirut, significant mobilization took place in
other areas of the country as well.
AKKAR REGION
10. Akkar mana mazbaleh,
“Akkar is not a Dumpsite”
BEKAA REGION
11. Hirak
ba’albeck, The Movement of Baalbak
Metn and the Chouf
REGIONS
12. Jal el Dib revolution
13. Barja, al- hamleh
al-ahliya li ‘iqfal matmar ann-na’meh,“The Community Campaign to close the
Naameh landfill”
OTHER GROUPS that
participated
Contemporary Lebanese
Politics Specific
Anti-corruption
● Lebanese
Transparency Association
● Sakker
el Dekkene “Close the Shop”
Civic engagement
● Center
for civic engagement and community service
● Men
Ajel el-Joumhouria (for the Republic)
● Nahnoo
Organization (WE)
● MARCH
● Nahwa
al Muwatiniya (towards citizenship)
Elections-related
● Civil
campaign for electoral reform
● Take
Back Parliament
● Sbaa
party (party of seven)
Alternative (LGBT and
Feminist Organizations; Other)
LGBT
● Proud
Lebanon
● Helem
● Lebanese
LGBT Media Monitor
Women’s Rights
● Sawat
al Niswa (Womens Voice)
● Kafa
(enough- violence exploitation)
Sexual Health
● Sexual
Health Center
● Arab
foundation for freedom and equality
Anti-Racism
● Anti
Racism Movement
Non-Immediate Political
NGOs (Civil War, Syria, Palestine, etc.)
● Act
for the Disappeared (Missing people during the civil war)
Syndicates
● Workers
● Teachers
Political Parties
(active in ‘opposition’, not part of ruling class/cabinet)
● Communist
University Groups
● Red
Oak
● Secular
Group AUB
Academic or Research
Institutions
● Samir
Kassir Foundation
● Issam
Fares Institute
Media (supportive of
civil society works)
● Al
Akhbar
● Al
Jadeed
Political groups formed
out of the social movement
● Beirut is my City
(Beirut Madinati): focused on Beirut and the improvement of the living
conditions within the city.
● Charbel Nahas’
Citizens within a State (Mouwatinoun Wa Mouwatinat fi Dawla): political
party, with main goal is to break the bonds of the traditional elitist leaders
and to build a “secular, democratic, just, and potent state”.
SPACES AND PLATFORMS
(meeting spaces for various groups)
● Daleel
Madani
● ALTCITI
● BERYTECH
● YOUTH
ECONOMIC FORUM
LIMITATIONS AND
CHALLENGES
It would be challenging
to develop the various threshold beyond which different segments of the society
would be willing to join the movement. Particularly, it will be difficult to
establish What is the reference population underlying the threshold level: that
is, x per cent of whom? Second, what accounts for the original
distribution of thresholds. Obtaining sufficient response form the
population on the survey. This could include questions on when would people become willing to join a mass protest?
NOTE
I
will be taking the second module next year and will use SNA as part of my
capstone.
Sources
·
Michael
Taylor Community, Anarchy, and Liberty, (1982).
·
Roger
Petersen, A community-based theory of rebellion, 1993.
● http://daleel-madani.org/profile/youth-economic-forum
1 comment:
This is a really well-thought-through idea, and it will make a great data-analytical contribution to your capstone. Using networks in to determine threshholds is equivalent to determining tipping points, which is a network theory on which there's a lot of literature.
You've got to manage the scope a bit, as it's considerable. When you're ready, let's talk. Happy to support this.
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