Friday, October 20, 2017

Social Network Analysis (SNA) to Determine Common Traits of Current U.S. Ambassadors

In the United States Department of State, there are currently 188 Ambassador-level positions overseeing diplomatic missions abroad. Approximately 70% of Ambassadors have spent their careers in the Foreign Service, while around 30% are political appointees, or non-career Ambassadors.[i] As these are highly coveted positions, it is valuable to consider the common experiences and professional qualifications of career Foreign Service Ambassadors. An analysis of the backgrounds of Ambassadors would provide insights for State Department promotion panels to see trends in the experiences of individuals who reach leadership positions. Are Ambassadors generally graduates of certain universities? Have Ambassadors frequently served at certain country posts during their careers? Are there particular Washington-based positions that have been filled by current Ambassadors?

Background 

The State Department’s mission is, “to shape and sustain a peaceful, prosperous, just, and democratic world and foster conditions for stability and progress for the benefit of the American people and people everywhere.”[ii] The primary diplomatic representatives of the United States abroad are the those in key leadership positions at embassies. According to the Foreign Affairs Act of 1980, a Chief of Mission is, “the principal officer in charge of a diplomatic mission of the United States or of a United States office abroad which is designated by the Secretary of State as diplomatic in nature, including any individual assigned under section 502(c) to be temporarily in charge of such a mission or office."[iii] The Chief of Mission is often an Ambassador, although this position is also held by a Chargés d’Affaires or a Chargés d’Affaires ad interim.[iv] The proposed SNA will focus on only nominated and confirmed current Ambassadors who are career diplomats.

Foreign Service Officers are promoted based on merit and with consideration of the organization’s needs. After progressing to the FS-1 level, career diplomats can be promoted to the Senior Foreign Service. Selection panels consider these candidates’ ability to demonstrate, “strong policy formulation capabilities, executive leadership qualities, security awareness, and highly developed functional and area expertise.”[v] Many Ambassadors are selected from this pool of highly qualified members of the Senior Foreign Service.

While there are many paths that could lead to an overseas posting as an Ambassador, education and professional experience play a significant role in helping individuals acquire the necessary skills needed to be promoted. Through SNA, it is possible to examine what these successful diplomats have in common.

Research questions

Of the appointed and confirmed U.S. Ambassadors currently, did a significant number of them attend the same university at an undergraduate or graduate level?

Are there certain country posts that many current Ambassadors served in at some point in their careers?

Are there certain Washington-based positions that have frequently been filled by current Ambassadors?

Hypothesis

I predict that many Ambassadors will have shared experiences studying at universities such as Georgetown University, Harvard University, Colombia School of International and Public Affairs, John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. There may also be common universities at an undergraduate level. I also predict that many Ambassadors served at hardship designated posts, such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Lastly, it is likely that many ambassadors served in countries that are strategically important to the United States, such as Mexico or China.

Data Collection

It will be relatively easy to collect the data needed to conduct this SNA, as this information is available to the public on the Department of State website. There is an updated list of Ambassadorial assignments overseas, which will make it easy to identify the career foreign service Ambassadors.[vi] Moreover, each embassy posts a short biography of the current Ambassador on the leadership section of the embassy website. The information I am interested in collecting is the university or universities Ambassadors attended, the countries they have served in, and Washington-based positions they have held. For example, the current U.S. Ambassador to Burma, Scot Marciel is a graduate of the University of California at Davis and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He has served overseas in Vietnam, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Brazil and Turkey. In Washington, he was the Director of the Office of Maritime Southeast Asia, Director of the Office of Mainland Southeast Asia, and Director of the Office of Southeastern Europe.[vii]

Network measures

After collecting the data, I would create 2-mode networks, with Ambassadors on one axis and the universities they attended on the other. The other 2-mode networks would look at the countries they have served in, and positions held in Washington-based offices. The purpose of considering the data in this way is to see how Ambassadors are connected by universities, country posts, or Washington assignments.

After creating the network maps, I would look at network centrality measures to see how dense the networks are and to see the average number of connections for each node. I would examine subgroups to see if there are any factions, and if there are connections between the factions. In a network map that depicts the countries served in as nodes and Ambassadors as the connections, it would be interesting to see if subgroups form around geographic regions. Analysis of the maps would also reveal if some Ambassadors had more than one country post in common with others. To see if Ambassadors studied at the same university and served in the same countries or Washington-based offices as others, I would create a matrix to compare the results of each 2-mode network analysis.

The proposed SNA has the potential to help Department of State promotion panels understand trends in the types of individuals who are being promoted to the Senior Foreign Service, based on their education and professional experience. Based on analysis, this could lead to organizational change to ensure that individuals with diverse geographical expertise and educational backgrounds reach the highest levels of the diplomatic service. Depending on the results, efforts could be made to reward those who have served in less recognized countries or roles, but have the capacity to perform as Ambassadors.

Opportunities for Further Analysis

There are many possibilities to expand on this SNA. One option would be to conduct a survey to gain deeper insights into Ambassadors’ formative experiences. The survey could ask which positions or country posts they felt helped them gain the skills to reach the Ambassador level. It would also be interesting to see if there are any specific individuals who influenced their career trajectories and if there are commonalities between them. Furthermore, it would be beneficial to survey Ambassadors about their relationships with each other. This could show if there are individuals who act as bridges, or if there is sharing of best practices among the cohort. It would also be useful to consider Ambassadors’ age and gender.

Another option would be to expand the target group to include department Principles, such as Secretaries, Deputy Secretaries, Under Secretaries, Deputy Under Secretaries, Assistant Secretaries, Counselors, Legal Advisers, Chiefs of Protocol, and certain administrators.[viii] The target group could also include non-career Ambassadors, Chargés d’Affaires, and Chargés d’Affaires ad interim.




[i] Adam Taylor, “Analysis | How U.S. Presidents Choose American Ambassadors,” Washington Post, November 23, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/22/ambassador-ivana-how-u-s-presidents-get-to-choose-americas-diplomats/.
[ii] “What Is the Mission of the U.S. Department of State?,” accessed October 17, 2017, https://diplomacy.state.gov/discoverdiplomacy/diplomacy101/issues/170606.htm.
[iii] “Principal Officers and Chiefs of Mission - People - Department History - Office of the Historian,” accessed October 17, 2017, https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/people/principals-chiefs.
[iv] Ibid.
[v] “3 FAM 2320 Promotion of Members of the Foreign Service,” accessed October 17, 2017, https://fam.state.gov/fam/03fam/03fam2320.html.
[vi] “List of Ambassadorial Appointments,” accessed October 17, 2017, http://www.afsa.org/list-ambassadorial-appointments.
[vii] “Ambassador Scot Marciel,” U.S. Embassy in Burma (blog), accessed October 17, 2017, https://mm.usembassy.gov/our-relationship/our-ambassador/.
[viii]  “Principal Officers and Chiefs of Mission - People - Department History - Office of the Historian”. 

1 comment:

Christopher Tunnard said...

As we discussed and agreed in class, this would make a fascinating and useful project. You've done good thinking about network types and measures, and also about the potential outcomes and used of the analysis. Your example of Scott Marciel illustrates how rich this could be.

If you don't want to take this further, I'll suggest it to someone in next year's class!