Genocide in the Twitter Age: Social Network Analysis of the #Rohingya Crisis

AnhViet Nguyen
Taking the second module, but not doing this project

Background
The Rohingya have been frequently called the “the most persecuted minority in the world”. Ongoing violence and discrimination has forced hundreds of thousands of Rohingya in Myanmar’s Rakhine state to flee to nearby countries such as Bangladesh. International commentators have described the continued persecution of the Rohingya, a stateless people with no rights to citizenship in Myanmar, as ethnic cleansing or genocide.  This social network analysis plans to examine how the #Rohingya hashtag has been used on Twitter, a relatively underutilized social media platform in Myanmar, and how the key actors connect through use of the hashtag.

Over the past year, Rohingya persecution has drawn more international attention than previous periods of violence. One might speculate that this has to do with Aung San Suu Kyi becoming Myanmar’s de facto leader in 2016 or the continued growth of social media around the world – and certainly within Myanmar. In recent years, anti-Muslim and anti-Rohingya sentiment has spread across social media, especially on Facebook. In September 2017, some Rohingya activists saw their Facebook and YouTube accounts deleted because of the graphic nature of the content that they were sharing online. Twitter, however, has continued to see high activity surrounding the #Rohingya hashtag. On September 3, for example, Malala Yousafzai tweeted a statement on the #Rohingya crisis, which received over 26,000 retweets and over 39,000 likes (as of October 18, 2017).

One of the potential implications of conducting a social network analysis of the #Rohingya hashtag could be to determine the feasibility of creating and sustaining a robust social media campaign about the Rohingya crisis on Twitter. In the past, the #RohingyaNow hashtag became a top trending hashtag in 2013 but was short-lived. In addition, the #WeAreAllRohingyaNow hashtag is a relatively new campaign but does not appear to be catching on among influential tweeters. A social network analysis of #Rohingya would identify key actors to help build a strong international constituency that calls on world leaders to take action. This type of analysis would also be applicable to other similar social media campaigns. 

Research Questions
1. Who are the main actors that are tweeting about the #Rohingya on Twitter? What is the content of their tweets? How are governments, NGOs, media, and citizens interacting with one another through use of the hashtag?
2. Is the #Rohingya hashtag used in conjunction with other hashtags? If so, what are those hashtags and does this tell us anything about opinions of the Rohingya?

Hypotheses
I hypothesize that the users of the hashtag #Rohingya with the most followers will be journalists, media organizations, and international organizations based in the United States and Europe. These individuals and organizations are likely to be widely viewed as credible sources that are able to share content about the crisis. The use of Twitter is still limited in Myanmar, as most individuals prefer to use Facebook. In addition, human rights activists will be active in promoting the hashtag.

I expect that most tweets containing the #Rohingya hashtag will be neutral or positive in tone toward the Rohingya because some view the situation as an ethnic cleansing or genocide. Some tweets, however, will be negative toward the Rohingya and associate the minority group with the broader narrative of Islamic terrorism or militancy.

Data and Methodology
Using NodeXL software, I will collect publicly available data from Twitter using the hashtag #Rohingya for a specified time period (TBD).  The tweets containing the hashtag #Rohingya will allow for an assessment of how the hashtag is being used to spread awareness on Twitter about the ongoing situation in Myanmar. The relevant information will be:

• The most frequent users of the hashtag #Rohingya and the number of followers that these users have.
• Users with the most followers that use the #Rohingya hashtag.
• Other hashtags used in conjunction with hashtag #Rohingya – these additional hashtags could indicate political leanings or how users view the Rohingya. For example, a tweet that also includes #ARSA is referring to the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, a group that Myanmar authorities have labeled as a terrorist group.
• Tweets from verified accounts (likely journalists and media organizations).

Network Measures
Network centrality measures will help identify the key actors using the #Rohingya hashtag. In-degree and out-degree connections can show who is disseminating and receiving information. Betweenness measures could reveal the actors with the most influence in the overall network. These will be the most important network centrality measures to determine who is leading and publicizing the struggle of the Rohingya. In addition, UCINET and NetDraw can show how the key actors are connected to each another. Depending on the other hashtags used in conjunction with #Rohingya, a NetDraw visualization could also show how certain hashtags are connected to each other by users.

Finding subgroups using faction or clique analysis will show which actors are closely connected. Subgroup analysis could better illustrate how governments, media organizations, NGOs, and other individuals are connecting through use of the hashtag. 

Challenges and Limitations
Attribute data such as verified accounts, number of followers/followed, location, and Twitter bio information on occupations or affiliations could be useful. A key assumption would be that the information provided is reliable and accurate, which is difficult to verify on a social media platform like Twitter. Assuming accuracy, attribute data could show how the actors using the #Rohingya hashtag are connected by common traits.

Depending on the time period for data collection, the #Rohingya hashtag will likely yield a high number of tweets. For instance, Malala’s #Rohingya tweet on September 3 would dramatically affect the overall network and NodeXL has tweet retrieval limits. Therefore, it might be worth considering examining other hashtags that have been used in the past, but have far less activity (i.e. #RohingyaMuslims, #RohingyaNow, #RohingyaCrisis, #SaveRohingya, #WeAreAllRohingyaNow, etc.).

As mentioned earlier, fake news and misinformation has been a problem on Facebook. Those same issues exist on Twitter, as well as the possibility of encountering automated bots. Although the network analysis can still be conducted, it would be prudent to remember that user identities are not always clear on Twitter.

Conclusion
Twitter is an underutilized form of communication in Myanmar but many around the world have learned about the atrocities and violence through social media platforms such as Twitter. Although Twitter will not singlehandedly end the violence, the social media platform can serve as a way to connect those who are concerned about the Rohingya.


Works Cited

[1] Al Jazeera, “Myanmar: Who are the Rohingya?” September 28, 2017.

[2] Kate Cronin-Furman, “The World Knew Ahead of Time the Rohingya Were Facing Genocide,” Foreign Policy, September 19, 2017.

[3] BBC, “Why are posts by Rohingya activists getting deleted?” September 23, 2017.

[4] Faisal Edroos, “ARSA: Who are the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army?” Al Jazeera, September 13, 2017.