Background
In 2016, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington launched the first-ever comprehensive look at the biggest thing happening in the world today that the United States plays no role in - the "reconnecting" of the Eurasian continent. From ancient times to the collapse of the Mongol empires in Eurasia and advent of European seafaring in the 1500s, the Eurasian trade routes between East and West were the most efficient way of moving goods and people. European trade and colonialism moved the economic centers to the coastlines however, which led to a hollowing-out of the continent and neglect of the inland trade routes. European seafaring technology increased the ease of sea shipping, as the overland route from Europe to East Asia became fraught with risk after the Eurasian empires that had maintained those routes began to fray [1].
Today, regional leaders like China, India, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Japan, the European Union, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) seek to change that with competing visions. New infrastructure projects involving railways and highways across central Asia have in 2011 already allowed cargo shipped from Chongqing, China to Duisburg, Germany to arrive in only 13 days, as compared to the 36 days it would take by sea [2]. "Reconnecting Asia," as CSIS's project is called, can be found on the microsite https://reconnectingasia.csis.org and contains an interactive map and large database that ties together the various projects in infrastructure, the non-state, state, and individual actors funding and implementing them, and the attributes that they all share.
Reconnecting Asia is an ambitious project only a couple years in the making and today it is the only undertaking of its kind to help the United States understand a measure of how the Eurasian continent is remaking itself. China's One Belt, One Road (OBOR) is the most famous example, but many actors play a role in this web of interactions, and if the U.S. will not play a role, then it had best at least understand what is happening in this historically neglected part of the world [3].
Why Social Network Analysis (SNA)?
Simply put, not only does this lend itself to social network analysis, but more importantly, no one has ever done any type of social network analysis on anything remotely related to this issue. The Reconnecting Asia team at CSIS continues to update a large, open-source database that they have sought to make sense of by means of maps, but no one yet has attempted to do so using social network analysis. If U.S. influence abroad is truly waning, and if a multipolar world featuring a strong China comes next, then Reconnecting Asia gives us a primer of what we can expect in the future. More than that, social network analysis can show us who the best connected actors are, who the power brokers are in this massive development, and who has a hand in most of this undertaking.
Hypothesis
Given China's ambitious One Belt, One Road and String of Pearls infrastructure projects across Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific, it is most likely that social network analysis will prove to us that China is close to most every development happening within this context [4]. However, I hypothesize that it will actually emerge that perhaps Iran or a central Asian non-state actor, or perhaps several, will be the power brokers here. Reconnecting Asia shows competing visions by the great powers - China, Russia, and the EU to name a few - but it appears that, while the great powers are not working together, they are working with many of the same non-state actors and central Asian governments. A couple U.S. firms appear to be involved as well, and it will be interesting to see how much or how little influence they hold over the rest of the network.
Methodology
The Reconnecting Asia team at CSIS has already set up their microsite nicely for use by social network analysis. The database separates out "projects" "initiatives," "organizations," "events," and "people." To best visualize the network, I will show the data in both a one-mode network and a two-mode. For the one mode, I will show people and organizations tied together by shared projects, events, and initiatives. Further, these people and projects will have the attributes of "type (individual or organization," "role (funder, contractor, or consultant, operator, or implementer)," and "nationality." The one-mode network will be a look just on how the "players" are connected, but not at what it is they are connected by. With that set up, I will use centrality measures to show the most influential nodes, as well as those who are likely power brokers in this network. It will also be interesting to see if the few American firms play an influential role at all in this. Then, I will use a two-mode network to show individuals and organizations connected to the projects themselves, with attributes for the projects indicating the country or region the project is in, as well at "type," meaning port, highway, railway, etc [5].
Pitfalls and Limitations
Despite the fact that the data has already been collected and organized, there is still a question as to whether social network analysis will be worthwhile on such a vast network of different organizations, individuals, and projects across a wide geographical area. There may simply be too much useful information that cannot be properly expressed through social network analysis. For example, the Košice-Vienna Railway under construction is being funded by the Slovakian government in Slovakia and Austria, but within the Chinese "One Belt, One Road" initiative. Further, it is being implemented by the Vienna-based Breitspur Planungsgesellschaft mBH with guidance by Munich-based Roland Berger Strategy Consultants [6]. It may be that it is simply impossible to have all of this information coherently displayed on a network map, so some of the detail may have to be sacrificed for the sake of being able to understand the network.
All of that being said, Reconnecting Asia is a project never before undertaken. The revelations that social network analysis could provide when applied to this data may be of great consequence to the proper understanding of the biggest thing happening in the world today that the U.S. plays no part in.
I am taking the second module of the course.
References:
[1] https://festival.si.edu/2002/the-silk-road/the-silk-road-connecting-peoples-and-cultures/smithsonian
[2] http://shanghaiist.com/2011/07/04/a_cargo_train_filled_with/
[3] https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/china/chinas-one-belt-one-road-will-it-reshape-global-trade
[4] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2951903
[5] https://reconnectingasia.csis.org/database/
[6] https://reconnectingasia.csis.org/database/projects/kosice-vienna-railway-construction/3b92029a-1f75-402a-adf5-8d9cf7b3786e/
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Reconnecting Asia is a fascinating, but, as you point out, a potentially massive project (both the SNA and the actual project itself.) While you outline the kind of analysis you will do, what I'd like to see more of is some deeper thought on what the useful outcome of the analysis might be. Yes, SNA can reveal nodes that are potentially influential, but you need to do a bit more than list the types of analysis you'll do. For instance, what kind of "influence" and "power" are you talking about? And what would a "proper understanding" of the project mean in actual terms, realpolitik and otherwise? Your railway example could serve as a test case for this. What would help you is to come up with the top-level, overall question that an SNA would answer. You'd be surprised to see how this helps pull things together. We will talk about this more in class.
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