Who Has Had Tea with POTUS: A Network Analysis of the White House Visitors Log

Blog Post (note rough draft): One of the most fascinating applications for social network analysis is in the political realm. Network analysis is uniquely well suited to determine who has the ear of public policymakers and whether that access has a clear correlation with preferred outcomes for that well-connected individual(s). Earlier we discussed the “structural holes” organizational model that plagued President Carter’s ability to effectively lead. We propose to use social network analysis to gain insight into the Chief of Staff and key foreign policy professionals in President Barack Obama’s Administration. Since mapping over one million unique visitors to the White House would span a lifetime, we’ll isolate the visitors of a few key “nodes.” In fulfilling a campaign pledge, the Administration has took the unprecedented step of publicizing the White House Visitors log which documents the 1.7 million guests of the White House, Eisenhower Executive Office Building and the New Executive Office Building (among others). While there is a wealth of information, we will explore the obstacles that face a detailed analysis of the network as a whole.

Whitehouse.gov allows you to download the visitors log into an Excel Document that simplifies the digestion of the data. Before continuing, we will jump into terms of reference. First, a macro level social network analysis of the Visitors Log has already been conducted. However, it is by no means comprehensive and focuses solely upon the President’s “visitors.” Speaking of which, there is ample reason to suspect that this visitors record is not complete. For an instance, the “visitors” of the President of the United States (POTUS) are usually not one-on-one visitors. Typically these type of “visitors” have been invited to receptions, the Roosevelt Garden or other type of ceremonial events. Therefore, while certain individuals may have strong ties with “POTUS” based on the frequency of visits, they aren’t necessary intimately connected—there are definitely alternative explanations for their access. Likewise, while the natural inclination is to zero in on visitors to the “Oval Office” or “West Wing,” further analysis shows that those visitors were simply on West Wing tours led (in more cases than not) by junior level staffers.

For an instance, while I worked in the Executive Office of the President and visited “POTUS” four times, I only met him fleetingly on one of those occasions. Much to my disappointment our ties are not strong, but a network analysis based on frequency would overstate our relationship.

NAMELAST	NAMEFIRST	visitee_namelast	Description
Narendra	Blake	Cizner
NARENDRA	BLAKE	CUBA	BASKETBALL COURT
NARENDRA	BLAKE	ECKHOUSE
NARENDRA	BLAKE	MACK	BOWLING ALLEY
NARENDRA	BLAKE	MACK	BOWLING
NARENDRA	BLAKE	NORTHERN
NARENDRA	BLAKE	OFFICE	OPEN HOUSE TOUR/
NARENDRA	BLAKE	OFFICE	GROUP TOUR
NARENDRA	BLAKE	POTUS	STATE ARRIVAL - MEXICO**
NARENDRA	BLAKE	POTUS	ASIAN AMERICAN HERITAGE MONTH RECEPTION./
NARENDRA	BLAKE	POTUS	STATE ARRIVAL - MEXICO**
NARENDRA	BLAKE	POTUS	GREEK INDEPENDENCE DAY RECEPTION
NARENDRA	BLAKE	POTUS	ALL APPOINTEE EVENT
Narendra	Blake	POTUS	GERMANY STATE ARRIVAL
NARENDRA	BLAKE	WACKLER
NARENDRA	BLAKE	WINTERS

How to shape the survey: To get around the difficulty of ascertaining whether individuals are visiting the President in an official or social capacity, we propose to create an Ego Net of former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel’s visitors. As the President’s “gatekeeper,” the Visitors Log would provide unique insight into who had access to the position Presidential scholars have called “the 2^nd most powerful person in the world.” Our network may, or may not, help us to graphically show that the issue affiliations of Emanuel’s visitors match the President’s issue interests (eg healthcare reform). In the period of 2009-2010, Emanuel had over 500 recorded visitors to his West Wing Office. We first task would be to identify those who are unique visitors and then sort them by frequency of visit. For an instance, 1.) “two visits or less”; 2.) “between 3-5 visits”; 3.) “more than 5 visits.”

Then we would attempt to create a survey based on their unique attributes of the visitors. For an instance, we’d explore whether they are from the public or private sector. We also want to know if they are White House Staff or Government Agency staff. One illuminating possibility is whether Emanuel met frequently with a particular White House staffer. Obviously this could be indicative of that individual’s important role or it could suggest they were repeated victims of Emanuel’s well-documented wrath. Assuming most are public sector officials, we’d create an attribute value for hierarchy (note: position title for all visitors not readily known). We especially would like to identify what Cabinet level officials visited Emanuel the most often. Then, to the extent possible, we’d identify the issue specialty of the visitor. Much of this analysis is predicated on whether the surveyor can identify the affiliations of Emanuel’s visitors; fortunately, many are prominent figures. While this small number of attributes above just scratches the surface, this is what our sample survey would look like working backwards from the Visitors Log data:

How often have you visited Rahm Emanuel in the survey period?

1=1-2 times

2=Between 3-5 times

3=More than 5 times

Do you Represent the Public or Private Sector?

1=Public

2=Private

(If applicable) are you White House Staff or an employee of a Government agency?

1=White House Staff

2=Government Agency Employee

From the below options, what is the closest approximation your leadership level?

1=Junior Level, no management of paid employees

2=Mid Level, degree of management but accountable to one or more superior(s)

3=Senior Level or Principal, Cabinet or Subcabinet Level Official (President or head of company/NGO)

Please Identify the two issues you most identify with or are an expert on?

1=Environment/Energy Policy

2=National Security (ie military/diplomacy)

3=Healthcare Policy

4=Trade Policy

5=Electoral Politics

6=Financial Sector Policy

7=Country Specific Expertise

8=Other

As I’m apparently not a domestic politics student, we could internationalize the White House Visitors log by analyzing the visitors of John Brennan, the President’s Deputy National Security Advisor. Similar to the Chief of Staff, Brennan had 454 visitors in the span of 2009-2011. We could similarly create a survey to identify what individuals or nodes and interests are represented vis a vis Brennan’s West Wing visitors (many of whom are Deputy or Principal Level officials). Our most laborious task is identifying key attributes of Brennan’s visitors with nothing but their names. To illustrate this network, we could create a survey based on the existing data.

What Agency do you Represent?

1=OVP/National Security Staff

2=State

3=DOD Civilian

4=DOD Uniform

5=Energy

6=USAID

7=DHS

8=DNI

9=DOJ

10=Other

What is your level of leadership?

1=Junior Official, no supervisory functions

2=Mid Level Official, some supervisory functions

3=Subcabinet Level Official

4=Cabinet Level Official

Identify one or two greatest areas of expertise?

1=Nonproliferation

2=Nuclear (Civilian)

3=Nuclear, Biological, Chemical (Weapons)

4=Iraq

5=Afghanistan

6=Pakistan

7=China

8=Syria/Lebanon

9=Israel/Palestine

10=Border Security

11=Counterterrorism

12=Cyber Security

13=Disaster Recovery (Domestic or International)

14=Other