In a paper published in 2012, authors use analysis of keywords in online news articles, data on ethnic group distribution, and geospatial information on the locations of ethnic groups and conflicts to correlate ethnic violence with key words. The paper, "Structure of ethnic violence in Sudan: a semi-automated network analysis of online news (2003–2010)" assesses the potential for conflict in Sudan before the secession of South Sudan.
The authors tested "whether an ethnic group's connections to the environment (livestock, biomes, and other resources) and other ethnic groups was associated with severe conflict and peace terms and whether ethnic-group richness at a given geospatial location was associated with severe conflict."
One of their findings was, "that resource linkages among ethnic groups were a determinant of severe conflict. Those groups that had either a strong connection to one biome or those that were tied to multiple biomes had more peace. This suggests that competition over the means of livelihood is critical. The finding that overlapping ethnic groups also is tied to conflict also lends supports that conflict may be over competition for resources."
The authors tested "whether an ethnic group's connections to the environment (livestock, biomes, and other resources) and other ethnic groups was associated with severe conflict and peace terms and whether ethnic-group richness at a given geospatial location was associated with severe conflict."
One of their findings was, "that resource linkages among ethnic groups were a determinant of severe conflict. Those groups that had either a strong connection to one biome or those that were tied to multiple biomes had more peace. This suggests that competition over the means of livelihood is critical. The finding that overlapping ethnic groups also is tied to conflict also lends supports that conflict may be over competition for resources."
"The first sphere of influence was the ethnic-group organization by environmental-resources network (Fig. 2a) and a second sphere of influence was the ethnic-group organization by socio-political knowledge network (Fig. 2b)...For example, the Murle ethnic group environmental-resource sphere of influence network (Fig. 2a) shows that the Murle were tied to the Dinka, Bor, and Nuer ethnic groups via livestock....RESULTS: An ethnic group that had more ties to CONFLICT within their sphere of influence also had more ties to LIVESTOCK."
The authors did statistical analysis in addition to social networks analysis. Full paper available: http://www.tracyvanholt.com/pdfs/vanholt_etal_CMOT_2012.pdf
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