Proposal: SNA for CVE

Jacqueline Page

(will not be doing the 2^nd module)

Leveraging Social Network Analysis to Inform Counter Violent Extremism Programs

Background            

The crises in Iraq and Syria have captured the international attention. Of particular concern to governments around the world is the number of foreign fighters traveling to the region to join groups active in the conflicts there. A recent report estimated that more than 12,000 individuals from 81 countries have joined the fighting, including approximately 3,000 from Western states. In just a short period, these numbers already surpass the number of foreign fighters estimated to have joined the mujahideen in the 10 year campaign against the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Officials and counterterrorism experts are concerned that some of these individuals will develop a desire to “bring the fight home” after having spent time amongst groups, like the now infamous Islamic State (IS), which espouse a particularly anti-Western ideology. Illustrative of this is Prime Minister David Cameron’s statement in May of this year: “No-one should be in any doubt that what we see in Syria and now in Iraq in terms of ISIS is the most serious threat to Britain's security that there is today.”

It is important to note that, of course, not all returning foreign fighters pose a threat to their home countries. Many view their mission as contained to the battlefields of Iraq and Syria. However, there are exceptions. A recent analysis conducted by Thomas Hegghammer found that 1 in 9 of the returning of Western (American, Canadian, West European and Australian) foreign fighters he studied “returned for an attack in the West.”

In recent months, Western nations have played with a variety of attempts to address this, the majority of which are reactive – revoking passports, preventing people from going in the first place, or carrying out arrests upon their return. An effective long term strategy must include programs which aim to stem the flow of individuals choosing to join these groups to begin with.

Primary SNA Question

Can we learn something from the social networks of foreign fighters that may help inform counter-radicalization efforts? Are there attributes that repeat in a given country? Across many different countries?

Hypothesis

Individuals who share some link with others already involved in the conflict are much more likely to join than those who do not.

Data

To effectively complete this analysis, I would need detailed information on foreign fighters that have participated in the current Syrian and Iraqi conflict. Dream data would include information about with whom these individuals have discussed their plans and political leanings. This could be used to predict who may be vulnerable to recruitment in the future. Additional geographic and biographic information would also be critical to develop a better understanding of participation.

Important Network Measures

(1) Network cohesion: it would be very interesting to gain a sense of the overall connection between foreign fighters from a given country on a network level. Are they connected at all? What is the distance and density of the network?

(2) Centrality measures: are there any individuals who seem to emerge as connectors? propagandists? orchestrators? influencers? What are these individuals’ direct connections to the conflict? Do they seem to be most active in the host country (perhaps as a recruiter) or in theater (perhaps as an inspirational “role-model”)?

(3) Clique/Subgroup Analysis: these measures will help identify clusters of particularly connected foreign fighters. It may be helpful to look at the attributes of these component parts—what commonalities do these individuals share, if any? Do the other cliques share similar or different commonalities? Are there “macro-commonalities” that seem to emerge across the various cliques?

Conclusion

Understanding the social networks of foreign fighters participating in the conflicts in Iraq and Syria could help policymakers and practitioners devise more effective counter violent extremism measures. Were we able to illuminate the connections between individuals who have participated and those that remain behind, we may be able to identify the individuals most vulnerable to radicalization and implement timely counter measures rather than relying on the largely reactive measures being forwarded today.