The Role of Social Networks in the Success and Duration of Nonviolent Protests

Will take second module and work alone.

Introduction/Background:

Engaging in nonviolent civil resistance can seem like a daunting endeavor for many, especially in the face of harsh autocratic governments. Literature explaining the efficacy of strategic nonviolent resistance has shown that nonviolent campaigns are approximately twice as likely to completely achieve stated objectives. Moreover, these trends in nonviolent campaigns have been demonstrated to be increasing over time, in both occurrence and success rates, suggesting the increasingly significant role strategic nonviolence may play in global affairs; we have witnessed it in the Arab Spring, and more recently in Hong Kong. It should also be noted that the duration of nonviolent campaigns is positively correlated to partial success. These are thought-provoking findings that challenged earlier literature that had highlighted the success of violent campaigns.

Broadly speaking, strategic nonviolence employs a set of tactics of centration and dispersion, e.g. strikes, protests, staying at home, with mass participation removing the consent to be governed. Maria Stephan and Erica Chenoweth point to this type of people power when it comes to the determinants of success in nonviolent campaigns. Of the cases in their data, every instance of a nonviolent campaign that had attained the active and sustained participation of 3.5% of the population succeeded, with many succeeding with less. They also found that the types of actors involved matter; campaigns drawing from a wider set of societal actors appeared to be more successful.

I plan to examine one of the aforementioned tactics—protests. It seems intuitive that enhanced coordination and communication would be critical to the success of strategic nonviolence. While there are numerous observers of such matters pointing to social media as an enabler of communication and coordination in protests, the discourse can occasionally appear to lack structure. My goal, therefore, is to use social network analysis to closely examine exactly how a coordinated, well-connected network of nonviolent resistors can be structured. Once this analysis is complete, I hope to add insights to the role of networks in fueling sustained protests and the interplay between networks and critical mass theory. I would then hope to place this study within the broader context of the strategy of nonviolence. At the moment, my intention is to use the current protests in Hong Kong as a case study.  

Primary Question:

How is the twitter network which connects the Hong Kong activists and observers structured and what types of actors are present? Do these two factors seem to have influenced the duration/sustainability or success (complete or partial) of the protests?

Hypothesis:

Sustained protests ought to have a well-connected and distributed set of broadcasters, leaders, and access agents, beyond those visible in the media. If Chenoweth and Stephan are correct in pointing out that movements with cross-cutting participation among societal actors is true, we may see a lack of diversity in the profile of key actors directly involved in the protest (assuming they are mostly students). However, despite this potential disadvantage, a well-connected and dispersed network may prove to overcome this weakness.

Data:

In lieu of surveying protesters, I will examine connections through twitter activity in order to track the flow of information and structure of the twitter network for the protest. To do this I plan to examine the most popular hashtags that have been used throughout the protests.

Methodology/Important Network Measures:

I plan to use Social Network Analysis to examine one-mode and two-mode networks of twitter users and hashtags. I plan to utilize centrality measures to get a sense of whether there are key actors or leaders playing coordinating and informational roles. Subgroup analyses would then allow me to get a sense of the integration of the network. Throughout these analyses, I will also examine the attributes of the actors in search of patterns. I hope to focus most on analyses of actors actually in Hong Kong, not actors tweeting from elsewhere.

Conclusions:

This study will provide a different lens through which to examine protests, along with theories such as critical mass. If the structure and makeup of the networks appears to have positively influenced the sustainability and success of the protests, this study will provide a structural approach to increasing the chances of success of this type of nonviolent tactic. It may also provide predictive insight into what social groups possess the potential to form well-connected and effective protests.