Proposed SNA - Southern Thailand Conflict

Amanda Mortwedt Oh

Proposed SNA

For second module

Research Question(s)

What is the relationship between people speaking about violence in Southern Thailand? {Other possible questions: How does the level of violence impact information flow? Do Thai Government and Thai Military public sentiments align after violent incidents in Southern Thailand? What is the relationship between international reporters on this conflict and the organizations they report for?}

Can we measure Southern Thailand actors’ public sentiments in order to determine an agreeable solution to the ongoing conflict? (attempt at key question triggered by complications)

Background

There is an on-going conflict in the three southernmost provinces (plus four districts of another province) of Thailand. In this area of Southern Thailand, the majority of the people are ethnic Malay Muslims who speak Jawi, while only about 20% of the population is Thai Buddhist. While there has been violence in the past, it surged in 2004 after the Tak Bai Massacre, where over 70 Thai Muslims died as a result of the Royal Thai Army’s detention procedures. Since 2001, violence in these provinces has resulted in the death of over 5,000 people. The conflict is often characterized by the Thai Government as an internal issue that is sporadic, unorganized, and without strong Muslim ideology. However, there are others, like reporters, human rights groups, and organizations in the Islamic community, that publically state otherwise. Overall, it appears that the Thai Government would like to keep the conflict in Southern Thailand out of the international spotlight. I would like to examine the statements made by various actors in Thailand – and to some extent outside actors speaking about the Southern Thailand insurgency – to look for relationships between these people and examine the information flow about this conflict.

Methodology 

I will identify Thai government officials, Thai military officials, insurgency groups, national and international reporters, researchers, NGOs, Islamic organizations/leaders, and Malay government officials that have been quoted or spoken out in online forums (newspapers, blogs, social media, etc.) about the Southern Thailand insurgency over the last year. [Note: I am not sure if this is too large of a network to work with.] I will assign numbers to their sentiments based on the strength of their opinions. I will also compare the timing of their statements with violent incidents in the South (based on the Global Terrorism Database). 

Define: Southern Thailand, Southern Thailand actors, non-international armed conflict (NIAC), international armed conflict, internal armed conflict, insurgency, etc.

Problems

• There is data on violent incidents in Southern Thailand, but often times there is not an organization that takes credit for the attack. 
• There are also multiple insurgency organizations, or factions of organizations, that exist in Southern Thailand, and it is difficult to obtain intelligence about the members of the organizations and their relationships to other organizations. 
• Additionally, the Thai Government seems to not want the conflict to appear as a problem with outside support (from Al Qaeda, for example). 
• Finally, the southern provinces are dangerous and most people speak Jawi and not Thai, making it difficult for people to travel to or interview the population. All of these factors pose problems in obtaining reliable, credible data about the conflict.