Proposed Social Network Analysis of Influencers of Post-Revolution Egyptian Political Opinion.

By Melinda Holmes, to be undertaken in for credit in the second module.

From January 25^th to February 11^th, 2011 Egyptians occupied Tahrir Square, bringing about on of the most striking regime changes in modern history and creating the premise for the endless speculation about the role of social media that has dominated discussion of the revolution since. From those first days, it was clear that social media was the most important to those who had witnessed the revolution through that lens, one with a rather narrow and exclusive quality if I may.

Going on two years later, we are still caught up in the debate over the driving factors of the uprisings, and what role to attribute to social media in it all. In a recent op-ed on Al Jazeera, Ramesh Shrinivasan, hashes it out again, focusing on the uptake of social media by anti-revolutionary agents and those who hold power. Also noted are some poignant examples of Egyptians merging the digital world and the street, showing that those doing the work of revolution have no preoccupation with settling the debate. In fact, all along activists both online and on the ground have cited Twitter and Facebook as tools, powerful ones for their speed and volume, but still only one dimension of the resources brought to bear in their efforts.

Gallup conducted a poll that reveals that despite all impressions the majority of Egyptians did not rely on Facebook as a source of information about the protests. In fact, the most significant role of social media during the 18 days of demonstrations that toppled Hosni Mubarak may have been its absence during the key stretch of days that saw the protests swell and solidify their hold over Tahrir square.

Source: Gallup

Gallup’s poll highlights the hype factor involved in assuming social media was a driving factor in the Egyptian revolution. Yet, several particularities of this question’s wording could have underplayed the role of Facebook, if my hypothesis is true. Individual’s perception of reliance on a certain sources may be very different from critical impact of that source. Furthermore, while the demonstrations in Tahrir were huge and demographically diverse, drawing thousands from other areas of the country, Gallup’s representative sampling structure may dilute responses of those involved directly in protests. Remember in Greater Cairo alone there are upwards of 20 million people, by no means could they all fit in the square. Thus, a nationally representative sample is not representative of the revolution’s actors, and the relative communication patterns of active and passive participants in the Egyptian revolution may be one of the most interesting research questions left unanswered.

           

This debate about the role of social media in the Egyptian revolution was brought to my mind again over the first module of our Social Network Analysis course, and I began two form two hypotheses. The first of these is based on the legacy of Lazarsfeld and Katz’s “two-step flow of mass communication” and Everett Rogers’ subsequent “Diffusion of Innovations” theory. This hypothesis, broadly speaking, estimates that interpersonal exchange is central to the formation of Egyptians political opinion, filling gaps between the demographic penetration of different media sources. I will consider two major constraints to the penetration of different forms of media: the literacy rate of just over 70% and the fact that only about 37% of Egyptians have internet access in their homes and that this is mitigated by high rates of patronage at internet cafes, primarily by young males.

Egyptians tend to be quite politically oriented, concerning themselves with political goings on and discussing politics often and at length. There has become a striking air of urgency about these conversations since the 25^th of January Revolution, as opposed to under Mubarak when discussions of politics were guarded and largely seen as futile. Unfortunately, as the transition process has dragged on and the political infancy of many players has become apparent, a certain fatigue is setting in. The social life of Egyptian communities reinforces this natural tendency, revolving around congregating at cafes and visiting relatives. During such social encounters it is impossible for the days events to not be discussed.

Although the illiteracy rate among Egyptians remains high, it does not necessarily mean that these individuals are excluded from the political dialogue. I hypothesize that there is a communal and conversational manner of information flow in Egyptian culture that allows it to penetrate into the illiterate population, albeit with filtering and subjectivity added along the way.

Furthermore, the same could be said with regard to the impact of social media on Egyptian popular political thinking. While only a small section of society has the internet at home, they interact with those who are active on Facebook and potentially even Twitter. What young people learn from their online activity online must inevitably enter their conversations with their families over dinner, and with their friends who maybe don’t use one or another form of social media. Or perhaps the traditional respect for elders within Egyptian society yields deference to newspaper readers in family discussions and the control of information diffusion, over the younger users of online social media.

I propose a social network analysis that will begin to test two hypotheses and to examine the question of the weighted values of information sources on opinion formation about post-revolution Egyptian politics:

1.     Information originating from social media penetrates Egyptian society far beyond its direct users, resulting in a weighted influence on the formation of political opinion that is greater than proportional to its identification as a source.

2.     Interpersonal interactions mediate the influence of different sources of information, forming the medium through which opinions are formed, and changed.

To investigate these hypotheses in a comprehensive and authoritative way would require in depth, in person ethnographic research with representative samples in Egypt. Needless to say, this is not possible within the time and scope of this course. Thus, I have confined my planned social network analysis to a feasible group that can hopefully begin to answer some of these questions. Thus I will conduct a survey with two groups of which I am a member, and thus have access to their membership and can hopefully instigate a high level of participation. They are two closed Facebook groups: “Egyptians in Boston” and “Discussing Egypt’s Unfinished Revolution” with divergent characteristics that could provide interesting contrasts for analysis.

“Discussing the Egyptian Revolution” was formed by activists frustrated at the lack of quality coverage of the ongoing revolution in English. Its stated purpose is to share, discuss, and clarify information about post-Mubarak Egypt. Its 399- person membership is international in background and geographically dispersed united by their activist orientation and passion for Egypt.

“Egyptians in Boston” is the group used by Egyptians in Boston to facilitate group activities and bring the expat community together. Its 817- person membership is mainly comprised of Egyptian ex-patriots who are located in the Boston area. Most members have an academic orientation and maintain close ties with their families back in Egypt.

While I recognize that this sample will not adequately represent the masses of Egypt. I will consider it as a test case for possible future work, and I am optimistic that it will produce interesting results.

I will field a survey to the two group designed at learning where their members

obtain information about Egyptian politics.

Possible questions include:

• ·      When there is a major event or crisis in Egypt, where, or to whom, do you look for information?
• ·      Who were the top three people with whom you discussed the elections over the last year?
• ·      Who influenced (gave you information or opinion that reinforced or changed your decision) your opinion the most?
• ·      Did you try to affect anyone else’s choice political opinion? Who? Do you think you were successful?
• ·      Did someone try to change your mind? Who? Were they successful?
• ·      What was your primary source of political information over the last year? People, traditional print or broadcast journalism, online social media?
• ·      Which traditional media sources did you access? Which did you discuss with other people? Were they state-run or independent sources?
• ·      Which online media sources did you use to get information about politics? To disseminate information? Twitter, Facebook, blogs, news websites?

For all people-related questions I will try to obtain as much demographic and situational information as possible including: (first) name, relationship, age, gender, location, and occupation.

For all media-related question I will try to identify as closely as possible the sources and their characteristics including: name of publication, channel, or website; I will then tag the responses with information about ownership, funding, political orientation, and location.

Using the literature addressing the investigation of questions of social influence as a foundation, I will be able to develop an analysis using primarily ego-network measures. If I get a complete enough network within a feasible network boundary, I will also be able to use measures of network centrality, although they are not necessary for the exploration of my hypotheses. I imagine that the nodes nominated by participants will have some overlap which could create the potential for interesting two-mode analysis. I would love to use the snow-balling sample method to penetrate to multiple levels of communication flow, but I expect that this would be too ambitious to prosecute during the remainder of the course.

Sources:

El-Gundy, Zeinab. Twitter’s role in revolutionary Egypt – isolation or connection? Ahram Online. 30 June 2012. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/114/32610/Egypt/-January-Revolution-continues/Twitters-role-in-revolutionary-Egypt--isolation-or.aspx

Gallup World. Egypt From Tahrir to Transition. Gallup, Inc. 24 October 2012. http://www.gallup.com/poll/157046/egypt-tahrir-transition.aspx

Srinivasan, Ramesh. Social Media and the Arab Revolution. Al Jazeera. 24 October 2012. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/09/2012919115344299848.html